|
I. Japan and the World Ten Years From Now
Our future-oriented vision, which will be presented below, is constructed on our projection of the world in 2015 in light of the current conditions of international politics. Of course it is impossible to accurately predict how the world will look ten years from now. But it seems beyond doubt that the following three factors will be of utmost importance:
- (1) whether U.S. foreign and security policy will shift to attach more importance to international cooperation;
- (2) whether Asia, particularly the rise of China, will be a stabilizing force; and
- (3) whether global governance, including that of international organizations, will be enhanced.
Pessimistic views of these factors may lead to a tragic worst-case scenario for 2015 in which:
- (1) the U.S. inclination toward unilateralism becomes stronger, leading to a series of preemptive attacks by the United States alone or by coalitions of the willing without a U.N. resolution, thus undermining the authority of the Security Council and igniting an endless chain of self-proclaimed "just wars窶 all over the world;
- (2) narrow-minded national interest becomes dominant in Asia, while a rising China prioritizes its national interest when acting, so that China becomes a threat to the region and regional stability and economic prosperity is lost; and
- (3) the capability of international organizations is gravely diminished through conflicts between the United States and Europe and between developing and advanced countries as well as the inefficiency of the United Nations itself, which results in a great loss of global governance concerning such key issues as proliferation of WMD, environmental devastation, and prevention and control of infectious diseases.
Yet, we could strive to realize a different scenario toward a much better world. Our scenario for a desirable world and Japan in ten years consists of an internationally harmonious United States, stability and growth in Asia, and enhancement of global governance.
We believe this desirable world should include the following elements:
- (1) a United States that has regained its respect for international cooperation;
- (2) an international society where a collective security framework in which use of military force should be endorsed by a U.N. resolution is the norm; and
- (3) a world characterized by a myriad of interreligious and intercultural
dialogues as well as mutual respect, gradually embedding stability even in the Middle East.
In this desirable world, Japan would be playing a befitting role in maintaining its own defense and the stability of the Asian-Pacific region as a sovereign nation and as an ally of the United States. In this world, there should be more occasions in which Japan plays a bigger role in U.S. foreign policymaking, communicating the expectations of the Japanese people as well as other Asian nations. There would be marked improvements in such issues as the U.S. military bases in Japan and the bilateral agreement on the status of U.S. forces in Japan.
Asia would be a world growth center by 2015 and steady steps toward an East Asian Community would have been taken. Countries in the region would be networked by layers of free trade agreements (FTAs) and many would have attained democratization and political stability. This East Asian Community would have become a major international actor thanks to Japan's leadership and China's active engagement in regional affairs as a dependable international power. Addressing such issues as energy, the environment, and financial policies, it would be the norm to take a regional approach. In the security realm, movement toward a regional regime would have been reinforced by successful confidence-building measures, deepened security dialogues, and cooperation in peacekeeping operations. China-Taiwan relations and North Korea would no longer pose a risk of war. Mutual trust would have been improved between Japan and its neighbors on both the governmental and societal levels.
International society will have calmly accepted the reality that world stability cannot be attained by the United States alone or without the United States. U.S.-European relations would be restored, and the legitimacy and effectiveness of international organizations would be recovered, based on the realization that they are not mere servants to U.S. interests. Furthermore, enhanced cooperation in peace building and nation building would have contributed to a decrease in the number of failed states. Terrorism and transborder organized crime will have been effectively contained by comprehensive multilateral cooperation in alleviating poverty and enhancing law enforcement capabilities. The nonproliferation treaty regime will have been reconstructed, and movement toward the non-nuclear option will have been reinvigorated. Establishment of a post-Kyoto Protocol regime with the participation of both advanced and developing countries, in addition to various technical innovations, would heighten expectations for the solution of environmental problems. Some infectious diseases would be on the verge of eradication. In international organizations as well as in Japan, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), private corporations, and citizens groups will be participating in the making and execution of foreign policy.
Japan will be a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, constructively engaging in the enhancement of peace and prosperity in Asia and the world as well as in the reform of the United Nations itself. While the relative weight of the Japanese economy in the world may have declined due to the rapid economic development of China and India, its attractiveness in the areas of technology and culture will be further increased. Japan will have earned the attention and respect of neighboring countries as well as of the international community as a great engine of a peaceful and prosperous Asia.
Whether we can actually realize this desirable landscape depends on how we conduct ourselves from now on. We herein present this vision "Toward Realization of Enlightened National Interest" as a chart toward this desirable world.
|
|
